How the estimate works
First-week sales from wishlists
Steam emails everyone who wishlisted a game when it launches, so wishlists at launch are the best public predictor of first-week sales. The share of wishlists that turns into first-week sales is the wishlist conversion rate.
GameDiscoverCo's 2020 survey of Steam developers found a median of 0.2 first-week sales per wishlist (20%), with games ranging from 0.05 to more than 1. Its later data runs lower: a median of 10.5% for games with at least 5,000 wishlists that launched from August to October 2024, and 15% for games with more than 25,000 wishlists in the year to September 2025 (10% for games priced above $10). The calculator uses 5%, 15%, and 30% as the low, typical, and high rates.
First-year sales
Most games make several times their first week over the rest of the year, through seasonal sales, discounts, and updates. GameDiscoverCo measured a median of 4x first-week revenue in the first year for games surveyed in 2020, and 2.46x for about 5,000 games launched from July 2023 to July 2025.
Discounted copies make unit sales grow a little faster than revenue, so the calculator multiplies first-week sales by 2, 3, and 5 for the low, typical, and high first-year estimates.
Followers and wishlists
Steam shows a game's follower count publicly, but not its wishlists. In a 2023 GameDiscoverCo survey of more than 125 developers, games had a median of 12 wishlists per follower, with most between 7 and 20. If you enter both numbers, the calculator compares your ratio with that range.
Sources:
- Steam: the new wishlists to first week sales expectations (Game Developer, 2020)
- Wishlist to sales ratio on Steam: GameDiscoverCo benchmark (Game World Observer, 2024)
- GameDiscoverCo: the state of Steam wishlist conversions (Game Dev Reports, 2025)
- Data deep dive: what's the long tail? (GameDiscoverCo, 2020)
- What long tail should you expect for your PC game in 2026? (GameDiscoverCo, 2026)
- How to count wishlists from Steam followers (Game World Observer, 2023)
Frequently asked questions
What is a good Steam wishlist conversion rate?
Recent data puts the median at about 10% to 15% of launch wishlists turning into first-week sales, and lower for games priced above $10. Anything above 20% is a strong launch. Below 5% usually means many wishlists came from events or giveaways rather than players waiting for the game.
How many wishlists do I need to launch on Steam?
There's no minimum, but wishlists set your launch week. At a 15% conversion rate, 10,000 wishlists means about 1,500 first-week sales and 50,000 wishlists about 7,500. Work backward from the sales you need: divide your first-week sales goal by 0.15 to get the wishlists to aim for.
What is a normal Steam followers to wishlists ratio?
A 2023 GameDiscoverCo survey found a median of 12 wishlists per follower, with most games between 7 and 20. Since follower counts are public on Steam, multiplying another game's followers by 7 to 20 gives a rough range for its wishlists.
How many sales will my game make in its first year?
Most Steam games earn about 2 to 5 times their first-week revenue over the first year, with recent medians between 2.5x and 4x. Multiply your first-week sales by that range for a rough first-year estimate.
Is the Steam wishlist calculator free?
Yes. It's free to use without an account. It's made by Game Stats AI, a game analytics platform that tracks what players do in your game after launch.