The Boxleiter method, tested on 36 games' real sales
By Mike Dalton ·
The Boxleiter method estimates how many copies a Steam game has sold by multiplying its review count by a fixed ratio. Steam doesn't publish sales, but it does publish reviews, and a fairly steady share of buyers leave one. For games released since 2020, the ratio most analysts use is about 30 copies per review.
We checked that number against 36 games whose developers or publishers reported their sales. For the seven games with a PC or Steam-only figure, the median was 29 copies per review.
Where the method comes from
The rule of thumb is named after Mike Boxleiter, an indie developer (one half of the studio Mikengreg). Jake Birkett of Grey Alien Games wrote it up in 2015 in How to estimate how many sales a Steam game has made, crediting the idea to Boxleiter, and suggested a ratio of 30 to 100 sales per review.
The ratio has dropped since then:
| Year | Source | Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Jake Birkett | 30 to 100, with 70 in the middle |
| 2018 | Jake Birkett, Using Steam reviews to estimate sales | Median 77 for premium indie games, 64 without 2014 launches |
| 2020 | GameDiscoverCo, the NB number |
Median 58 across 237 games reported by their developers |
| 2021 | VG Insights, How to estimate Steam video game sales in 2021 | About 30 for games released in 2020 or later (20 to 55), over 70 for games from before 2014 |
| 2022 | GameDiscoverCo | Medians from 20 (under 1,000 copies) to 59 (50,000 to 100,000 copies) for 2020 to 2022 releases |
GameDiscoverCo found that Steam's October 2019 change to how it prompts players for reviews lowered the ratio for newer games, which is one reason the older numbers run high.
How we tested it
We collected 36 Steam games with an officially reported sales figure and a source for each, and divided each figure by the game's Steam review count on November 3, 2026. The sources are listed on each game's page under Steam sales estimates.
Two things make the raw numbers misleading, so we split them:
- Platform. Most reported figures count every platform, but reviews only come from Steam. A game that sells well on consoles shows a ratio that is too high.
- Age of the figure. Reviews keep coming in after a sales figure is announced, so dividing an old figure by today's review count gives a ratio that is too low.
Four figures were left out: GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 report units shipped to stores rather than sold to players, Lies of P counts base game and DLC sales together, and Sons of the Forest's 2 million covers only its first 24 hours.
Games with a PC or Steam-only figure
| Game | Reported copies | Scope | Reported | Steam reviews | Copies per review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manor Lords | 3 million | PC, all stores | February 2025 | 78,104 | 38 |
| Palworld | 15 million | Steam | February 2024 | 417,110 | 36 |
| Terraria | 39.6 million | PC | May 2026 | 1,248,696 | 32 |
| Stardew Valley | 26 million | PC | December 2024 | 902,377 | 29 |
| Satisfactory | 5.5 million | PC | February 2024 | 236,911 | 23 |
| Factorio | 3.5 million | Mostly PC | January 2023 | 197,002 | 18 |
| PEAK | 5 million | Steam (only store) | July 2025 | 310,621 | 16 |
The median is 29 and the range is 16 to 38. The three lowest ratios belong to the oldest figures relative to the game's life: PEAK's 5 million came a month after launch, and Satisfactory's and Factorio's came before their big updates brought in another wave of players and reviews. Their ratios on the day each figure was announced were higher.
Terraria's figure is the most recent, from May 2026, and gives 32. A ratio of about 30 holds up for these games, and the Steam revenue calculator uses 30 as its typical case, with 20 and 50 as the low and high cases.
Why all-platform figures overstate the ratio
Stardew Valley and Terraria report both a PC figure and an all-platform total, which shows how much consoles and mobile change the result:
| Game | PC copies per review | All-platform copies per review |
|---|---|---|
| Stardew Valley | 29 | 45 |
| Terraria | 32 | 56 |
The other 27 games only report an all-platform total (or don't say). Their median is 41 copies per review, and the highest ratios belong to games that sell mostly on consoles:
| Game | Reported copies | Steam reviews | Copies per review |
|---|---|---|---|
| It Takes Two | 30 million | 220,704 | 136 |
| Split Fiction | 7 million | 79,503 | 88 |
| The Witcher 3 | 65 million | 850,951 | 76 |
| Dave the Diver | 10 million | 144,365 | 69 |
| Dead Cells | 10 million | 157,257 | 64 |
| Monster Hunter Wilds | 11.8 million | 203,696 | 58 |
| Terraria | 70 million | 1,248,696 | 56 |
| ARC Raiders | 16.3 million | 308,127 | 53 |
| Crimson Desert | 6 million | 117,691 | 51 |
| Stardew Valley | 41 million | 902,377 | 45 |
| Cyberpunk 2077 | 40 million | 905,422 | 44 |
| Phasmophobia | 30 million | 686,321 | 44 |
| Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | 8 million | 183,794 | 44 |
| Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | 6 million | 147,609 | 41 |
| Cult of the Lamb | 4.5 million | 113,312 | 40 |
| Sekiro | 10 million | 261,613 | 38 |
| Elden Ring | 30 million | 834,970 | 36 |
| Subnautica 2 | 4 million | 118,604 | 34 |
| Balatro | 5 million | 162,417 | 31 |
| Hollow Knight | 15 million | 507,679 | 30 |
| Deep Rock Galactic | 8 million | 304,195 | 26 |
| Valheim | 12 million | 476,354 | 25 |
| Battlefield 6 | 7 million | 301,744 | 23 |
| Hollow Knight: Silksong | 7 million | 390,647 | 18 |
| Helldivers 2 | 12 million | 849,700 | 14 |
| Rust | 16 million | 1,177,477 | 14 |
| Black Myth: Wukong | 10 million | 883,158 | 11 |
The lowest ratios here are launch-week or launch-month figures (Black Myth: Wukong after three days, Battlefield 6 after three days, Helldivers 2 after three months), or figures from years ago, divided by today's much larger review counts. When you compare your game to one of these, check what the figure counts and when it was announced.
Using the ratio for your own estimates
- Start at 30 for a game released since 2020, and treat 20 and 50 as the realistic range.
- Go lower for very small games: GameDiscoverCo's 2022 data puts games under 1,000 copies at a median of 20.
- Go higher for older games (VG Insights puts games from before 2014 above 70) and for an all-platform comparison, since console players never leave a Steam review.
- Don't compare to figures that count units shipped to stores, DLC, or subscription players.
To run the numbers for any game, paste its Steam store link into the Steam revenue calculator, which also takes off discounts, refunds, taxes, and Steam's cut. Once your own game is out, Game Stats AI reports your real players, retention, and revenue, so you no longer need an estimate.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Boxleiter method?
It estimates a Steam game's sales by multiplying its review count by a ratio of copies per review. It is named after indie developer Mike Boxleiter, and Jake Birkett first wrote it up in 2015.
What ratio should I use for a Steam game?
About 30 copies per review for a game released since 2020, with 20 to 50 as the usual range. In our check of games with PC or Steam-only sales figures, the median was 29.
Why has the ratio gone down since 2015?
Write-ups from 2015 to 2020 put the median between 58 and 77 copies per review. Steam changed how it prompts players for reviews in October 2019, and analyses of games released since 2020 land closer to 30.
How accurate is a review-based estimate?
It is a rough range, not a figure. Among the seven games we checked with PC or Steam-only figures, ratios ran from 16 to 38, so an estimate at 30 copies per review could be almost twice the real number or about a fifth below it.
